Prelims1
Welterweight
Stephen Thompson vs Joaquin Buckley
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
·Delta Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stephen Thompson
Joaquin Buckley
27%
73%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
42
Age
Δ 11y
30
17-10-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
22-8
L1
Current streak
W4
20
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Thompson: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Buckley: 34 sig / 4 TD
Stephen Thompson
Joaquin Buckley
70
Sig strikes landed
75
134
Sig strikes attempted
164
77
Total strikes landed
78
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.60
23s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
17-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database
20 fights · 12-7
Last 5
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
Blue corner
W4
Joaquin Buckley
"New Mansa"
22-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—