Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Mario Bautista
65%
35%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
38
Age
Δ 7y
31
33-10
Career record
Δ 9 pp
18-3
W1
Current streak
W6
21
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Aldo: 51 sig / 0 TD ·
Bautista: 49 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Mario Bautista
71
Sig strikes landed
68
145
Sig strikes attempted
150
77
Total strikes landed
87
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
105s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jose Aldo
33-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
21 fights · 14-7
Last 5
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
Blue corner
W6
Mario Bautista
18-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—