Prelims1
Heavyweight
Alexandr Romanov vs Rodrigo Nascimento
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi
·Rogers Place
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexandr Romanov
Rodrigo Nascimento
68%
32%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
80"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
18-4
Career record
Δ 8 pp
11-4
L1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Romanov: 45 sig / 6 TD ·
Nascimento: 31 sig / 0 TD
Alexandr Romanov
Rodrigo Nascimento
36
Sig strikes landed
31
69
Sig strikes attempted
61
57
Total strikes landed
51
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.5
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
260s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alexandr Romanov
"King Kong"
18-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
L
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
Blue corner
L1
Rodrigo Nascimento
"Ze Colmeia"
11-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—