Back to UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi
Main Light Heavyweight

Caio Machado vs Brendson Ribeiro

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi ·Rogers Place
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Caio Machado
Brendson Ribeiro
49% 51%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 3"
81"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
8-5-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
17-11
L2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Machado: 76 sig / 0 TD · Ribeiro: 49 sig / 0 TD
Caio Machado
Brendson Ribeiro
37
Sig strikes landed
45
70
Sig strikes attempted
91
47
Total strikes landed
56
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.9
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
72s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Caio Machado

"Bigfoot"
8-5-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
Blue corner
L2

Brendson Ribeiro

"The Gorilla"
17-11 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—