Main
Middleweight
Marc-Andre Barriault vs Dustin Stoltzfus
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi
·Rogers Place
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Marc-Andre Barriault
Dustin Stoltzfus
51%
49%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
17-12
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-9
L2
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barriault: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Stoltzfus: 13 sig / 0 TD
Marc-Andre Barriault
Dustin Stoltzfus
63
Sig strikes landed
55
117
Sig strikes attempted
119
84
Total strikes landed
65
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
74s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Marc-Andre Barriault
"Powerbar"
17-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 5-7
Last 5
L
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
L
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Dustin Stoltzfus
16-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 2-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—