Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ismail Naurdiev
Bruno Silva
79%
21%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
28
Age
Δ 7y
35
25-9
Career record
Δ 11 pp
23-14
L1
Current streak
L3
4
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Naurdiev: 66 sig / 3 TD ·
Silva: 36 sig / 0 TD
Ismail Naurdiev
Bruno Silva
50
Sig strikes landed
37
96
Sig strikes attempted
84
77
Total strikes landed
52
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
135s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ismail Naurdiev
25-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
L3
Bruno Silva
"Blindado"
23-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
L
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—