Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rinat Fakhretdinov
Carlos Leal
69%
31%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
W1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Fakhretdinov: 109 sig / 2 TD ·
Leal: 107 sig / 1 TD
Rinat Fakhretdinov
Carlos Leal
41
Sig strikes landed
28
79
Sig strikes attempted
64
68
Total strikes landed
40
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
352s
Control time
37s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rinat Fakhretdinov
"Gladiator"
25-1-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 4-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
Blue corner
Carlos Leal
"The Lion"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31