Prelims1
Catch Weight
Mateusz Rebecki vs Myktybek Orolbai
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mateusz Rebecki
Myktybek Orolbai
44%
56%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 8"
74"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
20-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
17-2-1
L1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Rebecki: 71 sig / 3 TD ·
Orolbai: 61 sig / 2 TD
Mateusz Rebecki
Myktybek Orolbai
38
Sig strikes landed
39
80
Sig strikes attempted
97
56
Total strikes landed
72
1.2
Takedowns landed
2.5
2.8
Takedowns attempted
6.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
144s
Control time
277s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mateusz Rebecki
20-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
Blue corner
W2
Myktybek Orolbai
17-2-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—