Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Abus Magomedov
Brunno Ferreira
75%
25%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
29-7-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
16-3
W1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Magomedov: 26 sig / 4 TD ·
Ferreira: 29 sig / 0 TD
Abus Magomedov
Brunno Ferreira
25
Sig strikes landed
24
59
Sig strikes attempted
46
35
Total strikes landed
36
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
123s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Abus Magomedov
29-7-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
Blue corner
W2
Brunno Ferreira
"The Hulk"
16-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—