Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Geoff Neal
Rafael Dos Anjos
56%
44%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
34
Age
Δ 6y
40
16-9
Career record
Δ 0 pp
32-18
L2
Current streak
L2
11
UFC fights in our DB
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Neal: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Dos Anjos: 4 sig / 0 TD
Geoff Neal
Rafael Dos Anjos
63
Sig strikes landed
58
133
Sig strikes attempted
99
88
Total strikes landed
85
2.7
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
7.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
252s
Control time
234s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Geoff Neal
"Handz of Steel"
16-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
L
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
L2
Rafael Dos Anjos
32-18
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
32 fights · 20-12
Last 5
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—