Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Ibo Aslan vs Rafael Cerqueira
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ibo Aslan
Rafael Cerqueira
73%
27%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
28
Age
Δ 6y
35
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Aslan: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Cerqueira: 1 sig / 0 TD
Ibo Aslan
Rafael Cerqueira
54
Sig strikes landed
44
123
Sig strikes attempted
105
62
Total strikes landed
48
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.5
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
54s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ibo Aslan
"The Last Ottoman"
15-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
Blue corner
Rafael Cerqueira
"The Lion"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35