Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shara Magomedov
Armen Petrosyan
87%
13%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
17-1
Career record
Δ 34 pp
9-6
W3
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Magomedov: 65 sig / 0 TD ·
Petrosyan: 77 sig / 0 TD
Shara Magomedov
Armen Petrosyan
80
Sig strikes landed
60
160
Sig strikes attempted
143
85
Total strikes landed
55
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
0.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
111s
Control time
3s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Shara Magomedov
"Bullet"
17-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
L1
Armen Petrosyan
"Superman"
9-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—