Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lerone Murphy
Dan Ige
79%
21%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
18-1-1
Career record
Δ 29 pp
19-12
W6
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Murphy: 52 sig / 3 TD ·
Ige: 46 sig / 1 TD
Lerone Murphy
Dan Ige
69
Sig strikes landed
55
118
Sig strikes attempted
136
86
Total strikes landed
59
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
195s
Control time
34s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Lerone Murphy
"The Miracle"
18-1-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
Blue corner
L1
Dan Ige
"100K"
19-12
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
17 fights · 10-7
Last 5
L
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—