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Main Light Heavyweight

Magomed Ankalaev vs Aleksandar Rakic

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Magomed Ankalaev
Aleksandar Rakic
81% 19%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
32
Age
Δ 0y
33
22-2-1
Career record
Δ 21 pp
14-7
W1
Current streak
L2
13
UFC fights in our DB
9

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ankalaev: 55 sig / 0 TD · Rakic: 53 sig / 0 TD
Magomed Ankalaev
Aleksandar Rakic
50
Sig strikes landed
39
100
Sig strikes attempted
92
68
Total strikes landed
47
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.5
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
141s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Magomed Ankalaev

22-2-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 13 fights · 10-1
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
D UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
W UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
W UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
Blue corner
L2

Aleksandar Rakic

"Rocket"
14-7
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
W UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
W UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
L UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …