Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Robert Whittaker
Khamzat Chimaev
59%
41%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
34
Age
Δ 3y
30
28-9
Career record
Δ 18 pp
16-1
W2
Current streak
W7
22
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Whittaker: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Chimaev: 3 sig / 2 TD
Robert Whittaker
Khamzat Chimaev
54
Sig strikes landed
61
131
Sig strikes attempted
120
68
Total strikes landed
75
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.2
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
36s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Robert Whittaker
"The Reaper"
28-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
22 fights · 17-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
Blue corner
W7
Khamzat Chimaev
"Borz"
16-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—