🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ilia Topuria
Max Holloway
67%
33%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
18-0
Career record
Δ 24 pp
28-9
W7
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Topuria: 75 sig / 2 TD ·
Holloway: 79 sig / 0 TD
Ilia Topuria
Max Holloway
109
Sig strikes landed
144
213
Sig strikes attempted
302
143
Total strikes landed
115
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.1
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.50
183s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Ilia Topuria
"El Matador"
18-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
Blue corner
W3
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
29 fights · 22-7
Last 5
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
L
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—