Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Edgar Chairez
Joshua Van
28%
72%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 6"
65"
29
Age
Δ 6y
23
14-6
Career record
Δ 15 pp
17-3
W1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Chairez: 79 sig / 0 TD ·
Van: 118 sig / 3 TD
Edgar Chairez
Joshua Van
54
Sig strikes landed
37
118
Sig strikes attempted
72
55
Total strikes landed
72
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
71s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Edgar Chairez
"Puro Chicali"
14-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
Blue corner
L1
Joshua Van
"The Fearless"
17-3
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—