Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Yazmin Jauregui vs Ketlen Souza
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
·Sphere
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Yazmin Jauregui
Ketlen Souza
65%
35%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 1"
63"
26
Age
Δ 5y
30
12-2
Career record
Δ 12 pp
17-6
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Jauregui: 35 sig / 0 TD ·
Souza: 21 sig / 0 TD
Yazmin Jauregui
Ketlen Souza
51
Sig strikes landed
55
134
Sig strikes attempted
118
70
Total strikes landed
78
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
115s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Yazmin Jauregui
12-2
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
W1
Ketlen Souza
"Esquentadinha"
17-6
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—