Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Raul Rosas Jr.
Aoriqileng
66%
34%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
20
Age
Δ 11y
31
13-1
Career record
Δ 26 pp
26-13
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rosas Jr.: 41 sig / 3 TD ·
Aoriqileng: 22 sig / 0 TD
Raul Rosas Jr.
Aoriqileng
32
Sig strikes landed
35
71
Sig strikes attempted
61
51
Total strikes landed
54
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
6.1
Takedowns attempted
-0.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
295s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Raul Rosas Jr.
"El Nino Problema"
13-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
20
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
Blue corner
W1
Aoriqileng
"The Mongolian Murderer"
26-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
L
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—