Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Irene Aldana
Norma Dumont
45%
55%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
36
Age
Δ 2y
34
16-8
Career record
Δ 16 pp
14-3
W1
Current streak
W4
13
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aldana: 69 sig / 0 TD ·
Dumont: 159 sig / 0 TD
Irene Aldana
Norma Dumont
63
Sig strikes landed
71
134
Sig strikes attempted
150
75
Total strikes landed
93
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.3
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
65s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Irene Aldana
16-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
L
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
Blue corner
W4
Norma Dumont
"The Immortal"
14-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—