Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brian Ortega
Diego Lopes
32%
68%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
17-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
28-8
W1
Current streak
W4
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ortega: 63 sig / 0 TD ·
Lopes: 106 sig / 1 TD
Brian Ortega
Diego Lopes
52
Sig strikes landed
49
117
Sig strikes attempted
109
61
Total strikes landed
56
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
95s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
17-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
Blue corner
W4
Diego Lopes
28-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—