🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Flyweight
Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
·Sphere
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alexa Grasso
Valentina Shevchenko
41%
59%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
31
Age
Δ 5y
36
17-5-2
Career record
Δ 10 pp
26-4-2
D1
Current streak
D1
12
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Grasso: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Shevchenko: 45 sig / 8 TD
Alexa Grasso
Valentina Shevchenko
59
Sig strikes landed
77
127
Sig strikes attempted
147
101
Total strikes landed
123
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.1
1.3
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
93s
Control time
243s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Alexa Grasso
17-5-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 8-3
Last 5
D
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
Blue corner
D1
Valentina Shevchenko
"Bullet"
26-4-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
16 fights · 12-3
Last 5
D
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
L
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—