🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Sean O'Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
·Sphere
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Sean O'Malley
Merab Dvalishvili
65%
35%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
20-3
Career record
Δ 5 pp
22-5
W6
Current streak
W8
12
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
O'Malley: 47 sig / 0 TD ·
Dvalishvili: 82 sig / 6 TD
Sean O'Malley
Merab Dvalishvili
81
Sig strikes landed
63
172
Sig strikes attempted
145
90
Total strikes landed
93
0.3
Takedowns landed
3.3
-0.2
Takedowns attempted
16.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
13s
Control time
223s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Sean O'Malley
"Suga"
20-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 10-1
Last 5
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
Blue corner
W8
Merab Dvalishvili
"The Machine"
22-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 10-2
Last 5
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—