Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jonathan Piersma
Samandar Murodov
40%
60%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
28
Age
Δ 4y
25
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Piersma: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Murodov: 13 sig / 7 TD
Jonathan Piersma
Samandar Murodov
16
Sig strikes landed
29
33
Sig strikes attempted
53
37
Total strikes landed
71
0.4
Takedowns landed
3.0
0.3
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
54s
Control time
427s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
55%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jonathan Piersma
"Warhawk"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
W1
Samandar Murodov
12-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 1.6
—