Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Tokitaka Nakanishi
Baergeng Jieleyisi
51%
49%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
13-4
Career record
Δ 3 pp
19-7
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nakanishi: 20 sig / 2 TD ·
Jieleyisi: 24 sig / 3 TD
Tokitaka Nakanishi
Baergeng Jieleyisi
23
Sig strikes landed
28
62
Sig strikes attempted
56
58
Total strikes landed
43
4.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
6.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
251s
Control time
218s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tokitaka Nakanishi
"Toky"
13-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 3.3 + 3.4
—
Blue corner
W1
Baergeng Jieleyisi
19-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
Road to UFC 3.3 + 3.4
—
L
Road to UFC 2.3 + 2.4
—