Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Zhu Kangjie
Shin Haraguchi
74%
26%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
22-5
Career record
Δ 0 pp
9-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Kangjie: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Haraguchi: 17 sig / 16 TD
Zhu Kangjie
Shin Haraguchi
38
Sig strikes landed
33
69
Sig strikes attempted
79
58
Total strikes landed
45
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
6.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
52s
Control time
185s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Zhu Kangjie
22-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 3.1 + 3.2
—
Blue corner
W1
Shin Haraguchi
9-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
Road to UFC 3.1 + 3.2
—
L
Road to UFC 2.7
—
W
Road to UFC 2.5 + 2.6
—
W
Road to UFC 2.3 + 2.4
—