Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marco Tulio
Matthieu Duclos
74%
26%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Tulio: 52 sig / 0 TD ·
Duclos: 30 sig / 0 TD
Marco Tulio
Matthieu Duclos
44
Sig strikes landed
31
87
Sig strikes attempted
75
75
Total strikes landed
46
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.8
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
280s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Marco Tulio
"Matuto"
15-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DWCS 7.4
—
Blue corner
Matthieu Duclos
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29