Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Bogdan Grad
Michael Aswell Jr.
61%
39%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
29
Age
Δ 5y
24
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Grad: 102 sig / 3 TD ·
Aswell Jr.: 155 sig / 0 TD
Bogdan Grad
Michael Aswell Jr.
27
Sig strikes landed
35
57
Sig strikes attempted
68
48
Total strikes landed
56
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
114s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Bogdan Grad
"The Unleashed"
15-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 7.1
—
Blue corner
Michael Aswell Jr.
"The Texas Kid"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24