Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Malcolm Wellmaker
Adam Bramhald
53%
47%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Wellmaker: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Bramhald: 19 sig / 0 TD
Malcolm Wellmaker
Adam Bramhald
35
Sig strikes landed
37
74
Sig strikes attempted
76
50
Total strikes landed
55
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
104s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Malcolm Wellmaker
"The Machine"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
Blue corner
Adam Bramhald
"Samurai"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30