Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jack Duffy
Nick Piccininni
57%
43%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Duffy: 76 sig / 0 TD ·
Piccininni: 32 sig / 6 TD
Jack Duffy
Nick Piccininni
36
Sig strikes landed
34
77
Sig strikes attempted
72
47
Total strikes landed
46
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
137s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jack Duffy
"The Fury"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
Blue corner
Nick Piccininni
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28