Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kaan Ofli
Mairon Santos
29%
71%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
31
Age
Δ 7y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Ofli: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 31 sig / 0 TD
Kaan Ofli
Mairon Santos
32
Sig strikes landed
44
72
Sig strikes attempted
87
45
Total strikes landed
58
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
94s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kaan Ofli
"Genghis"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Mairon Santos
"The Legend"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24