Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Robert Valentin
Ryan Loder
66%
34%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Valentin: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Loder: 42 sig / 1 TD
Robert Valentin
Ryan Loder
36
Sig strikes landed
33
75
Sig strikes attempted
68
54
Total strikes landed
44
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
147s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Robert Valentin
"Robzilla"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Ryan Loder
"Man of Steel"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33