Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Michael Morales
30%
70%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
37
Age
Δ 12y
25
32-15
Career record
Δ 32 pp
20-0
W1
Current streak
W4
32
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Magny: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Morales: 34 sig / 0 TD
Neil Magny
Michael Morales
49
Sig strikes landed
64
159
Sig strikes attempted
119
60
Total strikes landed
89
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.0
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
58s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
32 fights · 22-10
Last 5
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
L
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
W4
Michael Morales
20-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—