Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jhonata Diniz
Karl Williams
53%
47%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 0"
79"
33
Age
Δ 2y
35
10-2
Career record
Δ 1 pp
11-2
W1
Current streak
W3
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Diniz: 59 sig / 0 TD ·
Williams: 29 sig / 2 TD
Jhonata Diniz
Karl Williams
25
Sig strikes landed
24
41
Sig strikes attempted
37
36
Total strikes landed
45
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.9
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
73s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jhonata Diniz
10-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
Blue corner
W3
Karl Williams
11-2
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—