Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Damon Jackson
Chepe Mariscal
58%
42%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
24-8-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
19-7
W1
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jackson: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Mariscal: 73 sig / 5 TD
Damon Jackson
Chepe Mariscal
36
Sig strikes landed
40
99
Sig strikes attempted
80
54
Total strikes landed
66
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.6
5.5
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
146s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Damon Jackson
"The Leech"
24-8-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
36
In our database
12 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
Blue corner
W3
Chepe Mariscal
"Machine Gun"
19-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—