Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Marcin Tybura
Serghei Spivac
53%
47%
Why
78"
Reach
78"
39
Age
Δ 9y
30
28-11
Career record
Δ 0 pp
18-7
W1
Current streak
L1
19
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Tybura: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Spivac: 3 sig / 1 TD
Marcin Tybura
Serghei Spivac
35
Sig strikes landed
41
69
Sig strikes attempted
88
59
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
160s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
28-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
19 fights · 12-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
Blue corner
L1
Serghei Spivac
"Polar Bear"
18-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—