Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Delgado
Ernie Juarez
83%
17%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
26
Age
Δ 0y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Delgado: 40 sig / 3 TD ·
Juarez: 27 sig / 0 TD
Jose Delgado
Ernie Juarez
47
Sig strikes landed
42
100
Sig strikes attempted
87
66
Total strikes landed
58
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
121s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jose Delgado
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
Blue corner
Ernie Juarez
"The Young Titan"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Age
27