Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Matt Schnell
Cody Durden
51%
49%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
35
Age
Δ 1y
33
17-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
18-11-1
L2
Current streak
L2
13
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Schnell: 40 sig / 0 TD ·
Durden: 34 sig / 0 TD
Matt Schnell
Cody Durden
32
Sig strikes landed
38
75
Sig strikes attempted
75
43
Total strikes landed
55
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
77s
Control time
184s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
17-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
Blue corner
L2
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
18-11-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—