Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Steve Garcia
Kyle Nelson
77%
23%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
20-5
Career record
Δ 11 pp
18-7-1
W4
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Garcia: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Nelson: 1 sig / 0 TD
Steve Garcia
Kyle Nelson
39
Sig strikes landed
23
87
Sig strikes attempted
51
46
Total strikes landed
39
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
101s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Steve Garcia
"Mean Machine"
20-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
L
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
Blue corner
W3
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
18-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—