Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rongzhu
Chris Padilla
85%
15%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
24
Age
Δ 4y
29
28-7
Career record
Δ 8 pp
18-6-1
L1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Rongzhu: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Padilla: 68 sig / 0 TD
Rongzhu
Chris Padilla
34
Sig strikes landed
34
62
Sig strikes attempted
85
60
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.5
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.90
Knockdowns
0.10
182s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
59%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rongzhu
28-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Chris Padilla
"Taco"
18-6-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—