Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yizha
Gabriel Santos
80%
20%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
26-7
Career record
Δ 1 pp
12-3
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Yizha: 41 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 76 sig / 2 TD
Yizha
Gabriel Santos
35
Sig strikes landed
45
105
Sig strikes attempted
81
69
Total strikes landed
80
2.7
Takedowns landed
2.0
6.6
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
270s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Yizha
26-7
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
Blue corner
L2
Gabriel Santos
"Mosquitinho"
12-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—