Prelims1
Flyweight
Daniel Barez vs Victor Altamirano
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
·Accor Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Daniel Barez
Victor Altamirano
49%
51%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
36
Age
Δ 2y
34
17-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
12-6
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barez: 67 sig / 0 TD ·
Altamirano: 71 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Barez
Victor Altamirano
30
Sig strikes landed
39
59
Sig strikes attempted
64
38
Total strikes landed
58
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
83s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Daniel Barez
17-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
Blue corner
L2
Victor Altamirano
"El Magnifico"
12-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—