Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Fares Ziam
Matt Frevola
83%
17%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
28
Age
Δ 7y
34
19-4
Career record
Δ 25 pp
11-7-1
W3
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Ziam: 58 sig / 4 TD ·
Frevola: 16 sig / 1 TD
Fares Ziam
Matt Frevola
38
Sig strikes landed
20
75
Sig strikes attempted
49
57
Total strikes landed
33
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
156s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Fares Ziam
"The Smile Killer"
19-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Matt Frevola
"The SteamRolla"
11-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—