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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Ion Cutelaba vs Ivan Erslan

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis ·Accor Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Ion Cutelaba
Ivan Erslan
62% 38%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
L1
Current streak
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16
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Cutelaba: 45 sig / 3 TD · Erslan: 39 sig / 1 TD
Ion Cutelaba
Ivan Erslan
35
Sig strikes landed
37
72
Sig strikes attempted
75
48
Total strikes landed
50
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
83s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Ion Cutelaba

"The Hulk"
20-12-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 16 fights · 6-9
Last 5
L UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
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W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
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L UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
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L UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
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L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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Blue corner

Ivan Erslan

0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33