Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Steve Garcia
SeungWoo Choi
82%
18%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
32
Age
Δ 1y
32
20-5
Career record
Δ 20 pp
12-8
W3
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Garcia: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Choi: 9 sig / 0 TD
Steve Garcia
SeungWoo Choi
39
Sig strikes landed
24
87
Sig strikes attempted
63
53
Total strikes landed
30
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
109s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Steve Garcia
"Mean Machine"
20-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
L
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
Blue corner
W1
SeungWoo Choi
"Sting"
12-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—