Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Josh Quinlan
Adam Fugitt
59%
41%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
77"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
6-4
Career record
Δ 1 pp
10-7
L2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Quinlan: 53 sig / 0 TD ·
Fugitt: 80 sig / 0 TD
Josh Quinlan
Adam Fugitt
32
Sig strikes landed
40
65
Sig strikes attempted
75
41
Total strikes landed
54
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
96s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Josh Quinlan
"Bushido"
6-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
L1
Adam Fugitt
10-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—