Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Asu Almabayev
Jose Johnson
85%
15%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
24-3
Career record
Δ 26 pp
17-10
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Almabayev: 20 sig / 6 TD ·
Johnson: 5 sig / 1 TD
Asu Almabayev
Jose Johnson
35
Sig strikes landed
25
60
Sig strikes attempted
56
66
Total strikes landed
43
3.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
6.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
393s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
43%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Asu Almabayev
"Zulfikar"
24-3
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Jose Johnson
"Zhakwarius"
17-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—