Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jimmy Flick
Nate Maness
40%
60%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
18-9
Career record
Δ 18 pp
17-3
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Flick: 37 sig / 1 TD ·
Maness: 89 sig / 0 TD
Jimmy Flick
Nate Maness
18
Sig strikes landed
29
37
Sig strikes attempted
50
29
Total strikes landed
41
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.2
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
120s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
44%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jimmy Flick
"The Brick"
18-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
Blue corner
W1
Nate Maness
"Mayhem"
17-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—