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Prelims1 Women's Flyweight

Carli Judice vs Gabriella Fernandes

UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Carli Judice
Gabriella Fernandes
63% 37%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
25
Age
Δ 6y
31
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Judice: 169 sig / 2 TD · Fernandes: 119 sig / 2 TD
Carli Judice
Gabriella Fernandes
38
Sig strikes landed
33
88
Sig strikes attempted
76
66
Total strikes landed
58
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Carli Judice

"Crispy"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
Blue corner
L2

Gabriella Fernandes

"Gabi"
11-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
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