Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brady Hiestand
Garrett Armfield
71%
29%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
10-2
Career record
Δ 15 pp
11-5
W2
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Hiestand: 22 sig / 6 TD ·
Armfield: 49 sig / 0 TD
Brady Hiestand
Garrett Armfield
44
Sig strikes landed
41
104
Sig strikes attempted
88
64
Total strikes landed
66
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
6.1
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
266s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Brady Hiestand
"Bam Bam"
10-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
Blue corner
W2
Garrett Armfield
11-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—